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March 27, 2006

Four in a Million

(Or 1.5 million) ESPN has a massive online NCAA men's basketball tournament pool, which had over 1.5 million entries. Amazingly, four people actually picked Florida, George Mason, LSU and UCLA. They must have all grown up in Louisiana, gone to GMU, done graduate work in Florida, and now work in L.A. Or something.

Meanwhile at the Wynn in Las Vegas, at least one person bet $20 on George Mason to win it all, at 300-to-1 odds.

Posted by AdamBa at March 27, 2006 11:58 AM

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Actually this says how bad people are at predicting winners. If I'm guessing correctly how the contest was run, you have a 1 in 16 chance of randomly guessing the winner of each bracket, or a 1 in 16^4 (aka 1 in 65536) of guessing the final four correctly.

So...at 1.5MM entries they actually should have had 22 or 23 correct entries.

Posted by: Avi at March 27, 2006 12:44 PM