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September 03, 2004

258 and .400

Seattle Mariners outfilder Ichiro Suzuki is chasing George Sisler's record of 257 hits.

Seattle has played 134 games (their record is 51-83), so they have 28 games left. Currently he is 218 for 583, or .3739. 218 hits in 134 games is 1.626 hits per game, although Ichiro has sat out 2 games, so he really is producing 1.651 hits per game. Assuming he plays the remaining 28 games, he will get 46 more hits, which will give him 264, comfortably more than Sisler.

What is less discussed is the possibility of him hitting .400. He is averaging 4.417 at bats per game, so he will have 123 more at bats if he plays every game and bats at his current rate. So he would wind up with 706 at bats.

If he winds up with 264 hits in those 706 at bats, his average will still be .3739 (of course, since both the hits and at bats were extrapolated from his current numbers). To hit .400, he needs 283 hits, a whopping amount, but only 19 more than the 264 he is projected to, less than one a game. So in his 123 at bats, he would need 65 hits, not the 46 he is projected to hit. That means he would have to hit .528 in his last 28 games.

If we just wants to reach 258 hits to break Sisler's record, he only needs 40 more hits, which means he only needs to bat .325 the rest of the season. He's had a streaky year in which he has batted over .400 in three months and below .275 in the other two, but he's hitting .469 since the All-Star breaks (all these splits, and more are available at espn.com).

So, it looks like he has a good shot to break Sisler's record, but .400 would be a stretch.

Posted by AdamBa at September 3, 2004 09:47 PM

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